GUEST BLOG: Establishing a base camp for your digital journey through predictive modelling

Leading firms in automotive and manufacturing have deployed predictive simulation models to ask and answer major business process change and new technology investment questions for decades. Unlike many other predictive analytics technologies, predictive simulation has been deployed at scale for many years by these firms and has been embedded as business as usual by many for major capital expenditure decisions. Many less structured firms have avoided using such technologies, preferring to rely on experience and intuition; however, time is fast running out for gut-feel management as operations become more complex, connected and agile. 

The implementation of Industry 4.0 naturally generates similar opportunities, risks and business questions to the implementation of new technologies in the past. It’s therefore reassuring to know that well-proven software technology is available that can provide a highly visual predictive model of your business and gage the impact of different implementation options. By capturing your business logic, rules, assets and processes within a digital model, businesses can access a visually rich and statistically accurate method for testing their investment options and future changes across their organisation.

These models are able to simplify complex operational behaviours. The future-state data they provide is ideal for empowering clearer planning decisions, building comprehensive cost justifications and managing many of the risks associated with change. For these reasons alone predictive simulation offers an ideal starting point when considering investments in digital transformation through the application of Industry 4.0 technologies.

For many, a real value-add from a predictive simulation model is its ability to understand the complex dynamics of the current-state business before moving towards full digitisation.  Capturing processes and data in a visual, dynamic model secures the cross-functional engagement needed to establish effective strategic alternative investment options.  As investments in new Industry 4.0 technologies are made, the data driving such models can be refined via operational data sources such as those provided by modern equipment and real-time data sensors. As the level of digitisation progresses the model can hook into increasingly accurate and timely data flows providing both enhanced predictions based on business plans but also a real-time ‘digital twin’ representation of current operations and schedules.

A predictive digital twin is capable of showing the current state of the business across different media, offering management a view of the business that surpasses traditional reports. Options include 3D visualisation, augmented and virtual reality and dashboards that not only show key performance indicators, but allow individual points of interest to be examined in detail, drilling down into deep business data. Such dashboards can use predictive data to alert when and where potential future problems may occur. Using the right Industry 4.0 technologies, they can even provide the controls necessary to invoke remedial action. This form of dashboard will increasingly become the digital control panel or ‘predictive management cockpit’ for tomorrow’s operations managers.

Hayward Tyler, a designer and manufacturer of mission critical pumps and motors, used this technology to create a digital twin of their manufacturing facility. This award winning approach demonstrated how the factory would operate before it was even constructed and validated the development of a new carrier transportation, designed specifically to improve throughput throughout the facility. The predictive simulation technology is currently being developed to improve production scheduling capability to keep customers informed of when they can expect to receive their orders.

This post has been written by Andrew Aitken, COO, Lanner who are exhibiting at Subcon 6-8 June at the NEC. Register now for a free visitor pass at www.subconshow.co.uk 

Meet the speakers: In conversation with... Paul Adams, head of aerospace and defence, Vendigital

Paul Adams is head of aerospace and defence at Vendigital and is presenting ‘Additive, Brexit and Aerospace Supply Chains’ at Subcon at 11:30 on Thursday 8 June at Subcon. 

Please sum up your conference session in one sentence

Advancing low-cost competition is disrupting global supply chains and investment in 3D printing and other novel manufacturing technology has become mission critical for manufacturers in the aerospace and automotive sectors, but a clear investment strategy is essential.

What practical tips will visitors pick up from your presentation?  

How to take a more strategic approach to manufacturing technology. Understanding the risks associated with additive manufacturing; learning how to equip supply chains to cope with faster production methods and how to bring on capability quickly and securely.

What’s the biggest challenge facing the industry this year?

Looking beyond the revenue streams provided by long term production programmes and facing the growing competition from low-cost territories which is disrupting global supply chains – will UK or European manufacturers lose ground?

And the biggest opportunity?

Learning how to leverage technological advances and supply chain relationships to the full in order to differentiate our offering and build on the UK’s position of manufacturing strength.

Is leaving the EU good or bad for UK manufacturing?

Brexit could mark the end of zero-tariff trading in Europe and this is cause for concern particularly for the many UK suppliers to Airbus. But there is much that can be done to ensure UK-based manufacturers stay on course and limit their exposure to financial risk.

Do you think the industry will suffer if leaving the EU restricts free movement of labour?

Access to skilled labour is vital to the survival of the UK’s high-value manufacturing sector. Employers must have assurances that they will be able to keep existing EU workers on their books and they will continue to have access to a pan-European talent pool in the future.

If you were in Government, what would you do to encourage more women and young people to work in the engineering and manufacturing industries?

Make sure there are plenty of rewarding career paths for them. Give early opportunities to lead and provide the flexibility that young people expect from a career in the 21^st century.

What are you most looking forward to about Subcon 2017?

Sharing views about the challenges and opportunities facing the UK’s manufacturing sector at a time of significant global geopolitical uncertainty.

Paul Adams is head of aerospace and defence at Vendigital and is presenting ‘Additive, Brexit and Aerospace Supply Chains’ at Subcon at 11:30 on Thursday 8 June at Subcon. Register for your free ticket now at www.subconshow.co.uk 

UK MANUFACTURERS CALL ON GOVERNMENT TO STEP UP AND HELP CLOSE THE ENGINEERING SKILLS GAP

The UK manufacturing industry is calling on Government to step up and do more to encourage young people to consider engineering as a career and, thereby, help to close the ongoing skills gap. This is according to a new poll of over 600 industry professionals commissioned by Subcon in association with leading trade magazine The Engineer.

The survey revealed that:

·       67 per cent of UK manufacturers are worried about the future availability of skilled staff for their business

·       72 per cent don’t believe Government is doing enough to promote skills training

·       83 per cent believe there are not enough young people working in UK manufacturing and engineering

·       88 per cent claim engineering is a good career choice for young people

·       90 per cent claim the industry would benefit from more young people working within it

·       Just 54 per cent currently train apprentices

·       40 per cent don’t know whether The Apprenticeship Levy (introduced on 6 April 2017) is a good thing

“The engineering skills gap is the biggest challenge facing the UK manufacturing industry right now." Sid Shaikh, Engineering R&D Manager, Ocado.

In response to the estimate that the UK needs an additional 1.8 million engineers by 2020*, Government has introduced The Apprenticeship Levy, and announced £170 million worth of investment in technology institutes as part of its Industrial Strategy and the introduction of T-Levels. Despite this, nearly three quarters of manufacturing professionals believe Government could do more, specifically with regards education.  

When asked what industry and the Government can do to encourage more young people to consider manufacturing as a career, the top five answers polled were:

1.     Increase and improve education at school level

2.     Invest in apprenticeship training 


3.     Promote potential career progression 
and opportunities 


4.     Increase pay at all levels 


5.     Improve the image of the industry 


The industry speaks

Sid Shaikh, Engineering R&D Manager, Ocado: “The engineering skills gap is the biggest challenge facing the UK manufacturing industry right now. If Government is to encourage more young people to work in the industry, we should introduce engineering qualifications earlier in the education process, create targeted promotion and incentives for women and young people to take the Engineering GCSE, and create a culture that is more welcoming to new starters that are keen to learn.”

Alan Pendry, Associate Professor of Advanced Systems Engineering in the School of Engineering and the Built Environment at Birmingham City University: “Apprenticeships and degree apprenticeships are an excellent opportunity for UK companies to grow the essential skills needed by our growing manufacturing industry and to take us into the fourth industrial revolution. If I were in Government and wanted to encourage more young people and women into engineering, I would get rid of ‘career politicians’ and replace the cabinet with engineers: 50 per cent male and 50 per cent female, educate school teachers as to what engineering and manufacturing in the 21^st century is and promote positive action without the perceived fear of discrimination in the appointment of women to engineering posts.”

Jon Excell, Editor, The Engineer: “The skills shortage is a major issue. The Government is doing a bit to help and the investment in technology institutes, and introduction of T-Levels and The Apprenticeship Levy are all welcome developments that will give a lot of people opportunities they haven’t had before as well as broaden the pool that industry can draw on. But there is a slight caveat – and it’s a concern a lot of people have raised – which is that in the rush to meet the target of three million apprentices, we don’t lose sight of the fact that we need high quality apprenticeships for the high value industries that will help drive the economy.

“Of course, there is always more the Government can do, but it’s not just down to Government, industry has an important role to play, too. It needs to get more engaged with education and the school system to inspire the next generation of engineers.”

The survey of more than 600 UK manufacturing professionals was carried out by Subcon and leading industry trade magazine The Engineer. Subcon is the UK’s premier manufacturing supply chain show, taking place 6-8 June 2017 at NEC, Birmingham. Visitors can register for a free pass at www.subconshow.co.uk.