Thursday, 25 May 2017

GUEST BLOG: Establishing a base camp for your digital journey through predictive modelling


Leading firms in automotive and manufacturing have deployed predictive simulation models to ask and answer major business process change and new technology investment questions for decades. Unlike many other predictive analytics technologies, predictive simulation has been deployed at scale for many years by these firms and has been embedded as business as usual by many for major capital expenditure decisions. Many less structured firms have avoided using such technologies, preferring to rely on experience and intuition; however, time is fast running out for gut-feel management as operations become more complex, connected and agile. 

The implementation of Industry 4.0 naturally generates similar opportunities, risks and business questions to the implementation of new technologies in the past. It’s therefore reassuring to know that well-proven software technology is available that can provide a highly visual predictive model of your business and gage the impact of different implementation options. By capturing your business logic, rules, assets and processes within a digital model, businesses can access a visually rich and statistically accurate method for testing their investment options and future changes across their organisation.

These models are able to simplify complex operational behaviours. The future-state data they provide is ideal for empowering clearer planning decisions, building comprehensive cost justifications and managing many of the risks associated with change. For these reasons alone predictive simulation offers an ideal starting point when considering investments in digital transformation through the application of Industry 4.0 technologies.

For many, a real value-add from a predictive simulation model is its ability to understand the complex dynamics of the current-state business before moving towards full digitisation.  Capturing processes and data in a visual, dynamic model secures the cross-functional engagement needed to establish effective strategic alternative investment options.  As investments in new Industry 4.0 technologies are made, the data driving such models can be refined via operational data sources such as those provided by modern equipment and real-time data sensors. As the level of digitisation progresses the model can hook into increasingly accurate and timely data flows providing both enhanced predictions based on business plans but also a real-time ‘digital twin’ representation of current operations and schedules.

A predictive digital twin is capable of showing the current state of the business across different media, offering management a view of the business that surpasses traditional reports. Options include 3D visualisation, augmented and virtual reality and dashboards that not only show key performance indicators, but allow individual points of interest to be examined in detail, drilling down into deep business data. Such dashboards can use predictive data to alert when and where potential future problems may occur. Using the right Industry 4.0 technologies, they can even provide the controls necessary to invoke remedial action. This form of dashboard will increasingly become the digital control panel or ‘predictive management cockpit’ for tomorrow’s operations managers.


Hayward Tyler, a designer and manufacturer of mission critical pumps and motors, used this technology to create a digital twin of their manufacturing facility. This award winning approach demonstrated how the factory would operate before it was even constructed and validated the development of a new carrier transportation, designed specifically to improve throughput throughout the facility. The predictive simulation technology is currently being developed to improve production scheduling capability to keep customers informed of when they can expect to receive their orders.

This post has been written by Andrew Aitken, COO, Lanner who are exhibiting at Subcon 6-8 June at the NEC. Register now for a free visitor pass at www.subconshow.co.uk 

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