Much has been written about the rise of the machines
recently with doom and gloom about mass unemployment and the ‘hollowing out’ of
the middle class. However, the reality of previous industrial revolutions and
new technologies is that the nature of work changes. For example, according to
the Office for National Statistics farming and fishing accounted for 22 per
cent of jobs in 1841, yet today with the introduction of mechanisation to feed
a growing population the industry supports just two per cent of the UK’s
workforce. However, in the same period, overall employment rates have risen and
new jobs (that farmers in the 19th century couldn’t imagine) have
been created.
"So yes, the nature of work will change and robotics and
automation are likely to have a significant impact on manufacturing employment.
But it’s unlikely that the affect will be mass unemployment for several
reasons."
The first is that the UK is far behind other nations in
the uptake of robotics and automation. In the UK we have around 33 robots per
10,000 manufacturing jobs yet in Germany this is greater than 150 and in South
Korea is higher than 300. At the same time, those nations that have embraced
robotics have higher productivity rates and are increasing the number of
manufacturing jobs. Until UK industry recognises that robotics and automation
are good for us, the UK is likely to struggle to compete with other
industrialised nations.
The second reason is that although we may well replace
human workers with robots, those robots will need maintenance and supervision.
This means that the nature of work undertaken by humans will change to become
higher value and knowledge based. There is good evidence from the introduction
of new technologies in the past to prove this. For the UK, this means ensuring
we are training and equipping our workforce for this situation.
The final reason is simply that despite great strides in
technology, widespread, reliable autonomous factories are many decades from
becoming a reality. There are examples where this has been achieved, but in
reality, the nature of many manufacturing jobs is that they require a level of
skill, adaptability, dexterity and intelligence that today’s technologies
cannot achieve. A good example of this is the assembly of cars. Most modern
vehicles are welded together in a seamless ballet of robotic welders yet when
it comes to fitting the nervous system of the vehicle (i.e. its wiring
harness), several people have to manipulate a heavy, flexible and complicated
item into small apertures in the welded body. As yet, no robot can achieve the
level of dexterity, adaptability and problem solving for this application that
a human can. There are many applications we can use robotics for, but there are
just as many that the technology will not be able to complete for many years
and where humans will still be needed.
So whilst we do need to increase the use of robotics and
automation in our manufacturing industries, the reality of mass unemployment is
unfounded. Perhaps the real risk to long term manufacturing employment comes
from not installing robots rather than the robots themselves.
Jeremy Hadall is Chief Technologist for Robotics and Automation, The Manufacturing Technology Centre. He will present ‘The benefits of embracing robotics and automation’ at Subcon at 1215 on Wednesday 7 June. Register for a free pass at www.subconshow.co.uk
No comments:
Post a Comment